Boeing forecasts $15 trillion in commercial aviation market over the next two decades


Farnborough - Boeing forecasts $15 trillion in commercial aviation market and support services over the next twenty years, driven largely by budget airline operators and their preferred aircraft types Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo.

Boeing presented a comprehensive analysis on July 17 at the Farnborough. The forecast doesn’t cover the possible effects of future geopolitical conflicts or trade wars, which could remarkably change the market trends.

Global aviation is booming, mainly because the economy, trade, and the middle class are growing in emerging markets such as China and Brazil.

Based on the current strong demand, the American aircraft manufacturer predicts that airlines will need about 42,700 new aircraft worth a total $6.3 trillion to meet demand over the next two decades; 1,700 aircraft more than the Boeing's projection in 2017.

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According to Boeing, almost two-thirds of the aircraft ordered will be single-aisles (737 MAX or A320neo). Boeing also sees demand for 8,070 wide-body aircraft worth $2,5 trillion and 2,320 regional jets worth $110 billion.

For the first time in years, we are seeing economies growing in every region of the world. This synchronized growth is providing more stimulus for global air travel. We see strong traffic trends not only in the emerging markets of China and India but also the mature markets of Europe and North America,
said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Commercial Marketing at Boeing.
Along with continued traffic expansion, the data show a big retirement wave approaching as older airplanes age out of the global fleet,
Tinseth added.

According to current fleet data of the airlines, there are more than 900 planes over 25 years old. By the mid-2020's, more than 500 airplanes will span 25 years of age every year. 44% of the new aircraft will be needed to replace aging planes, while the rest will promote future expansion. The air fleet will double by 2037.

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The Asia-Pacific region will continue to be the world’s fastest-growing market over the next 20 years. Boeing predicts 40 percent of new aircraft will be delivered to the airlines in Asia-Pacific region. North America, together with Europe, will account for another 40 percent. The remaining 20 percent will be shared by carriers based in South America, Middle-East, and Africa.