They are optimistic that this move will lead to a faster recovery in the industry but are also expressing concerns about a shortage of aircraft. The industry has faced significant challenges in the past three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in thousands of planes being grounded. However, with the recent loosening of COVID policies in China, demand for air travel is once again on the rise.
A report released on Monday by Avolon, the world's second-largest aircraft leasing company that is owned by China, predicts that global air traffic will reach pre-pandemic levels as soon as June of this year. This forecast is notably more optimistic than the predictions of many other industry experts.
"After a 70% recovery in passenger traffic last year led by ... Europe and North America, Asia will drive growth in 2023, helped by the recent reopening in China," Avolon said.
However, some are adopting a more cautious approach and are not as optimistic about a swift recovery.
"Airlines are not dramatically increasing their frequency to China. It's going in the right direction, but it's going to take some time," said aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski.
"For now, I think we must think about China in a cautious way," Rob Morris, head of global consulting at Ascend by Cirium.
On the other hand, AerCap, the world's largest aircraft lessor, has stated that delivery issues at Boeing and Airbus are expected to persist for several years. They also suggest that manufacturers are not providing airlines with an adequate notice about delays. AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly, speaking at the annual Airline Economics conference in Dublin, said that this issue of over-promising and under-delivering is likely to continue for years to come.
"The challenge with the OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) today is the short-dated nature of how they're notifying airlines of the delays," Kelly said.
On the side of demand from customers, Kelly thinks the air travel is expected to fully recover by the middle of the year, returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the pandemic.
